Monthly commodity prices update for October 2024

The monthly update of PricePedia commodity prices for October 2024 has been released. Overall, the prices of commodities tracked by PricePedia recorded a +3.3% increase compared to September 2024, a month that marked a low point since October 2021 and the most significant month-on-month decline since the beginning of the year (-5.5%).

The following chart shows the price evolution of raw materials in Europe for the main PricePedia aggregates: Commodity^[1], Industrials^[2], Energy Total, and Food Total, with a base of 100 for the respective levels of January 2022.

All illustrated aggregate indices recorded price increases in euros, albeit with varying intensities, compared to September 2024. However, except for Food, which saw increases in both September and October 2024, the aggregate indices’ rebound remains partial, as October's increase did not offset the previous month’s decline.
The most significant month-on-month increase was recorded by Energy (+6.3% compared to last September), supported by oil prices, which saw a +3.6% increase in dollars over the past month. However, oil prices continue to fluctuate below the $80 per barrel threshold, affected by the uncertainty of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the war in the Middle East, and the weak economic environment.

Regarding core industrial commodities, the October increase was modest at +0.8%, aligning with the intensity of fluctuations seen since August 2023. These changes indicate a predominantly sideways trend for the industrial commodities index.

Commodity Prices by Product Category

Below are the variations recorded in October 2024 compared to the previous month in the euro prices of the main categories available in PricePedia.

Except for Non Ferrous Metals (+2.8%) and Inorganic Chemicals (+1.6%), core industrial commodity categories show absolute value changes, both positive and negative, of less than 1%.
Euro prices of Precious Metals saw a significant increase in October 2024, up by 7.5%, driven by rising financial prices for gold and silver, boosted by growing demand for safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, euro prices for Plastics and Elastomers (-0.8%), Organic Chemicals (-0.2%), and Specialty Chemicals (-0.1%) remained relatively stable. Euro prices of Ferrous Metals were also stable, with an October increase limited to +1% following a -3% drop in September. For these latter categories, Chinese export prices continue to act as a stabilizing factor, preventing a real upward phase in prices.

The following charts compare the euro price trends of European and Chinese indices for the Plastics and Elastomers and Ferrous categories.

Plastics and Elastomers

Ferrous Metals

European and corresponding Chinese prices show a very aligned trend. In recent months, the downward trend has been much more pronounced for Chinese prices, producing a containment effect on European prices.