Increasing trend for kraftliner prices

Kraftliner paper is a type of paper used as an outer layer, known as the cover, in the production of corrugated cardboard. Its total fiber mass is composed of at least 80% sulfate or soda softwood pulp fibers (chemical softwood pulp) and the remainder from recycled fibers. It is considered a high-quality material due to its high strength and flexibility.
Between 2020 and 2022, high demand, also linked to the growth of e-commerce during the pandemic, led to price increases for kraftliner averaging over 65%, reaching a peak of more than 800 euros per ton in June 2022.

The graph below shows kraftliner prices for the European market, for various grammages, expressed in euros per ton.

Kraftliner, prices in Euros per Ton

The three quoted prices follow a single trend and have very similar levels, regardless of specific grammages.
The price decline that began in the second half of 2022 brought values below 600 euros per ton, aligning more closely with pre-COVID quotes.
Although average 2024 prices are at least -2% lower than 2023 levels, quotes experienced relatively intense growth for much of the year, with prices in December 2024 exceeding March 2024 prices by over +20%.
Price growth during this phase appears to be driven by cost factors, particularly those related to kraft pulp. As described in the analysis The Price of Pulp at the End of 2024, kraft pulp quotes experienced increases of more than 10%, depending on the benchmark considered.

The following graph shows pulp prices for the European, American, and Chinese markets. For the European market, customs and NOREXECO sources are illustrated; for the American market, customs sources; and for the Chinese market, financial prices from the Shanghai Future Exchange (SHFE), expressed in euros per ton.

Pulp Prices in EU, China, and USA (in Euros per Ton)

Prices across the three regions show a very similar trend. The current upward trend began in the second half of 2023, earlier than observed for kraftliner. The quotation with the highest growth rates is that of NBSK pulp in Europe sourced from NOREXECO: in 2024, it recorded an average increase of +17.6% compared to 2023.
Meanwhile, European customs pulp prices showed a more moderate but still significant increase of +8.8%, positioning themselves between the financial NOREXECO benchmark and the corresponding Chinese SHFE price (+0.3%).

Conclusions

Price increases characterized pulp markets over the past year. These increases occurred across major geographic markets, albeit with varying intensity.
This trend tends to anticipate the price trends of downstream paper products, such as kraftliner. Kraftliner prices, in fact, began rising in March 2024, lagging behind pulp prices; therefore, it is plausible that cost effects will continue to influence its growth in the coming months.