The decline in Olive Oil prices in Europe continues

The past nine months have put an end to the exponential growth that had been driving European olive oil prices^[1]. Over the same period, quotations for different categories of olive oil have fallen by more than -25%, returning to levels seen in the 2022-23 olive oil campaign.

The following chart shows the monthly European customs price trend of European extra virgin, virgin, and non-virgin olive oil since 2017.

European Olive Oil Prices by Quality, in Euros per Ton

Starting from the 2022-23 olive oil campaign, olive oil prices saw a sharp rise due to drought conditions affecting the Mediterranean basin, leading to a poor harvest (see the article Update of edible oil prices to November 2024), particularly in Spain, the world's largest producer.
The recent price drops are attributed to a better-than-expected production compared to the last two campaigns: estimates indicate that European production for the 2024-25 olive oil campaign will increase by +30%.

The following chart shows the production, in thousands of tons, of European Union countries over the last six olive oil campaigns (source: European Commission^[2]).

European Olive Oil Production, in Thousands of Tons

After two particularly poor campaigns in terms of harvest and olive oil production, the current campaign is expected to return to levels in line with the 2019-20 campaign. This recovery is mainly driven by Spain, which is recording a +51% increase in olive oil production.
In general, production is expected to rise in all other countries except Italy. For Italy, in fact, a production deficit of -27% compared to the last campaign is expected, reaching the lowest levels of the past six campaigns.

Extra Virgin Olive Oil Prices

The following chart compares European Commission price data for extra virgin olive oil from Italy and Spain, expressed in euros per ton.

Extra Virgin Olive Oil Prices: Italy vs. Spain, in Euros per Ton

As seen in the chart, the Italian extra virgin olive oil price remains at record highs even in February 2025. Compared to these levels, the corresponding Spanish price is more than 5000 euros per ton lower.
Historically, Italian olive oil has always had a positive price differential compared to Spanish olive oil, in line with Italy’s less intensive production methods compared to Spain and consumer perception of Italian olive oil as a premium product. Therefore, in addition to the relative scarcity of the product, the price rigidity of Italian olive oil is also justified by product differentiation^[3].